Federal Marketing Comms Market Signals: Shutdown Risk, Contract Expirations, and Rising M&A
While this year’s fiscal closeout feels far from typical, we’re starting to see some meaningful signals across the industry—though not always in the ways we’ve come to expect.
CR Watch: No Deal Yet, Shutdown Risk Rising: Congress is trading dueling stopgaps with no continuing resolution enacted (yet). The White House and Hill leaders canceled talks yesterday, keeping the risk of an Oct 1 lapse very real. Proposals on the table vary in length and policy riders; the Senate is not aligned. Expect delays to new starts and stretched capture timelines until funding clarity arrives.
Contracts Running to 9/30 (But Not Rebid Yet): Some contracts slated to end 9/30 were not formally cancelled by DOGE, raising the likelihood that agencies are letting the current year of performance run its course before rebidding. For incumbents, this is a moment to double-check the status of options, extensions, or bridges that might quietly extend work into the new fiscal year.
Year-End Awards Still Coming (Lighter Than Usual): Even with funding uncertainty, we should still see a series of year-end contract awards. The volume will likely be lighter than in recent years, but several highly contested RFPs are expected to land, including: DHS’s “If You See Something, Say Something” campaign and the U.S. Coast Guard Public Affairs BPA. Both are mission-critical programs that underscore how campaigns tied to law enforcement and national security continue to move forward—even in an otherwise constrained environment.
M&A Activity Heating Up: We’re also seeing a noticeable uptick in M&A conversations across the sector:
Several firms are exploring selling contracts and backlog as a way to unlock value as uncertainty rises and before further uncertainty sets in.
Others are actively looking to buy, aiming to diversify or secure contract vehicles anticipated to play central roles in future procurements.
It’s a reminder that even in tight markets, consolidation and repositioning remain strong forces shaping the competitive landscape. We’ll continue monitoring these signals closely—tracking where the market is opening up and where agencies are pulling back.